Until the escalation in the past couple of weeks of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protest, the Chinese government seemed to be winning. Beijing’s strategy, apparent since the street demonstrations and sit-ins began at the end of September, was to wait and let the protest movement die of its own exhaustion.
Chinese leaders believed the largely spontaneous movement lacked the staying power for a prolonged contest of political will. Students would be pressed by their families to return to their studies. The hardships of occupying open streets would force many to quit. Disruption to business and traffic would undermine public support.
Under these circumstances, the best course of action for Beijing was to do nothing: no real negotiations, no concessions on the central issue of the direct election of the city’s chief executive in 2017 and no use of force.