Who will win last week’s Japanese election? The question seems foolish, not to mention grammatically confused.
Shinzo Abe’s gamble to hold a snap election paid off brilliantly. The opposition was caught off guard and, against all the odds in the midst of a recession, the ruling coalition maintained its two-thirds “supermajority” in the lower house. What’s more, the prime minister has seen off an embryonic rebellion from his own party hacks angered that they were overlooked in a cabinet reshuffle in which five women were appointed. He has shown them who is boss. He will now sail through next year’s Liberal Democratic party leadership election. Nothing will then prevent him staying in office until late 2018, making him Japan’s longest-serving prime minister in half a century. On this reckoning, he is the big winner. Yet, as with many things in Japan, probe a little deeper and not everything is as it seems.
First, Mr Abe’s LDP actually lost seats, albeit only four. The turnout, at 52 per cent, was the lowest of the postwar period. Many of those who stayed at home would have voted against Mr Abe — had there been anyone to vote for. The Democratic Party of Japan, the official opposition, is in such disarray that it failed to field candidates in several districts. In spite of its shortcomings, it still managed to scramble 11 more seats.