With the big exception of India, all the Brics economies are slowing. For the first time since China’s cultural revolution, India will outgrow its Himalayan neighbour next year, according to the International Monetary Fund. On Sunday, Barack Obama became the first US president to visit India twice and the first to be invited as chief guest to itsRepublic Day parade. There is little downside to his India bet and a long-term upside. America’s ability to adjust to a multipolar world will be shaped by whether New Delhi and Washington get along. The fact that Mr Obama has hit it off with Narendra Modi — his political opposite in many ways — speaks volumes.
That said, it would be a surprise if Mr Obama could pull off the kind of deal that he did in China last November. The Obama-Xi Jinping climate change accord put lifeless international talks back into play. India’s stance will be critical to the outcome of the Paris summit later this year. Galvanising Mr Modi’s enthusiasm to do something on emissions is one reason Mr Obama so readily accepted his invitation (and made sure his annual State of the Union address did not clash with India’s Republic Day). It is hard to imagine Mr Obama going to such lengths for America’s traditional allies, whether Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israel, or David Cameron’s Britain. Nor should he. The rise of India is a geopolitical fact of our time. The manner in which it rises is critical to the future of the world.
Managing that requires the sort of patience that comes hard to US statesmen. There is an inverse link between India’s strategic importance to the US and its visibility on America’s immediate radar. Mr Obama did not even mention India in his address to Congress last week. Yet the timing of both his visits is revealing. The first took place in November 2010 shortly after Mr Obama’s first midterm electoral “shellacking”. This is happening after his second. It is as though Mr Obama is seeking refuge in the bigger picture. While Congress messes around with partisan gimmickry, Mr Obama is peering over the horizon at the world that is unfolding.