Countries are not companies (unless they are Apple, considerably bigger on some measures than many sovereign states). But stripped to the basics, they have some similar characteristics. So if China and India were companies, what sort might they be?
China Corp, once a racy growth stock, attracted dollars eager to take part in its anticipated rise. Broadly, this panned out as expected — and, arguably, better. Up until this decade, China Corp tended to deliver positive profit warnings as GDP and fixed asset investment accelerated.
This phase is past. In recent years, GDP growth targets have been falling; profit warnings have turned negative. The latest forecast for this year is “about” 7 per cent, down from last year’s target of 7.5 per cent. And even that lower target may be missed. Yesterday, economic figures including retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment all came in uncomfortably below forecasts.