Is Abenomics a busted flush? To sceptics it must certainly look that way. Japan’s growth has faltered. A downward revision this week showed the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter. That may not sound too bad for a mature economy that has not exactly dazzled in recent years. However, it comes after two quarters of sharp contraction. Output actually shrank in 2014, albeit by a minuscule 0.03 per cent. Negative growth, however minor, is hardly the “escape velocity” economists say Japan needs to shake off 20 years of deflation.
Banishing deflation was supposed to be the core of Abenomics, introduced by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in December 2012. Here again, news looks bad. Haruhiko Kuroda, the central bank governor, promised to hit 2 per cent inflation within “about two years” of April 2013. He is now fudging. In the language of central bankers, apparently, “about two years” can mean three years or more. So much for transparency. Core inflation, which includes energy, is running at just 0.2 per cent. Unless oil prices stage a sudden rally, Japan could soon find itself back in deflation. Abenomics without inflation is like Hamlet without the ghost.
Weak inflation puts pressure on the Bank of Japan to undertake yet more quantitative easing after its surprise second salvo last October. If it does not act, it could lose credibility both with markets and with a public that needs convincing inflation is here to stay. Low inflation stems in part from a policy blunder: last year’s three point rise in consumption tax just when consumers were being asked to spend. Instead, they snapped their wallets shut.