Over the next few months the question of US participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal is likely to be resolved one way or the other. It is, to put it mildly, a highly controversial issue. Proponents believe a deal is essential for both our economic and geopolitical interests; opponents fear it will benefit corporate interests and the wealthy at the expense of middle-class living standards.
Definitive judgment is not possible because the parties are still negotiating and we have not yet seen a final agreement. Our negotiators should never forget that those who “need” agreements get less good ones than those who do not. The US economy is certainly capable of prospering without an agreement. And lack of global profit opportunities for US headquartered corporations is far from one of our economy’s most pressing problems. Nonethe less I believe that the right TPP is very much in the American national interest.
First, in considering what is most fundamental — the interests of American workers — it is essential to distinguish between the effects of trade and the effects of trade agreements. The combination of changing patterns of trade, in which more activity takes place with low-wage economies, and new research has altered consensus thinking on trade. The view now is that trade and globalisation have increased inequality in the US by allowing more earning opportunities for those at the top and exposing ordinary workers to more competition.