Today, the most important bilateral relationship is that between the US and China. Tomorrow, it will be the one between China and India, the world’s biggest emerging powers. That is why the most significant meeting of this year may well be the one between President Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, in Beijing in May.
Barely 35 years ago, any development economist who predicted that the most populous nations on our planet would also become the two fastest growing economies would have been treated with derision. Pessimism was the order of the day then as China and India appeared destined to stay mired in poverty.
Today, a different destiny awaits as the two nations are poised to enter a period of growth and prosperity. Yet it is also clear that they could seize defeat from the jaws of victory. Both could slow down their growth if they are caught in a vicious spiral of bilateral competition and rivalry. That could well happen. Indeed, Mr Xi’s visit to New Delhi last September was seriously damaged by reports of a big incursion by 600 Chinese troops at the disputed Sino-Indian border.