The coming turn in US interest rates may be the most telegraphed in many cycles. Yet for all Janet Yellen’s strivings at clarity, the US outlook remains clouded by poor visibility. Last week Ms Yellen said the Federal Reserve was still likely to raise interest rates this year — possibly in September — in spite of the sharp slowdown in first-quarter US growth. For one reason or another, including a series of harsh winters, growth in the first three months of the year has tended to underperform the rest of it, often heavily so. The US economy shrank by an annualised 2.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 only to rebound in the next three. Hopefully this year’s anaemic 0.2 per cent first quarter expansion will be equally misleading.
美国利率即将到来的转向或许将是多个利率周期以来媒体报道最多的一次。然而，尽管美联储(Fed)主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)极力保持透明，美国的利率前景依然疑云密布、难以看清。耶伦上周表示，尽管今年首季度美国manbetx20客户端下载 增长大幅放缓，美联储仍有较大可能在今年加息——可能会在9月份。由于种种原因，其中包括连续几年都遭遇严冬，一年中头三个月的manbetx20客户端下载 表现往往弱于、而且是远弱于余下几个月。2014年首季度美国manbetx20客户端下载 以年率计萎缩了2.9%，结果在接下来3个季度里实现了反弹。运气好的话，今年首季度堪称疲弱的0.2%的增长率有望和2014年首季度一样具有误导性。