China’s economic troubles and increasingly rigid ideological controls have led prominent China watchers to forecast the crack-up of its political system. I share the view that the Chinese Communist party may soon be extinct — but the extinction will be in name only.
In fact, the CCP is neither communist nor a party. Few Chinese believe it will abolish the market economy and lead the march to higher communism. It is “Leninist” in the sense that it is vertically organised and rules supreme over the state apparatus but it lacks other vital features, such as the idea that class conflict is the motor of history, a commitment to the idea of communism at home, and support for revolutionary overthrow of capitalist regimes abroad.
And the days of Leninist-style political mobilisation are long gone because the party must be sensitive to public opinion. The CCP can mobilise around causes such as its anti-corruption drive if there is already social demand; but no longer around hare-brained schemes such as the Great Leap Forward, which radically conflict with what people want and what most scholars see as sensible.