Vertiginous levels of debt, industrial overcapacity, slowing growth and deflation: it has seldom been easier to spin a bearish yarn out of China’s economic data. In any fully developed economy this combination would augur an asset price bust or, at best, a spell of extreme volatility.
Either may come to pass: for the first time in decades, capital is leaving the country, and the stock exchange is performing a passable impression of a market in the grip of late-stage mania.
But China is also a place where normal rules of thumb do not apply. Uniquely for an economy in its position — the largest as well as one of the fastest growing on the planet — its leadership has consciously planned for a transition towards a different growth model.
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