The challenge facing today’s emerging market investors is to discern order — or at least pattern — among a great diversity of different countries, assets, risks and opportunities. Some attempts have been made to group countries that seem to share attributes, such as the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India and China). But any static grouping inevitably loses relevance over time. A more dynamic system is called for, but one that continues to find order even as EM growth trends ebb and flow.
This is the thinking behind shifting “from Brics to Blocs”, a matrix for EM investing.
The system is organised around the two defining distinctions of emerging market economies: whether they run structural current account deficits or surpluses and whether they are primarily exporters of commodities or manufactured goods.