Emerging market private sector debt has surged by an “enormous” 33 per cent of gross domestic product since the global financial crisis, heightening the risk of financial crises, according to new analysis by JPMorgan.
The findings come amid mounting expectations that the US Federal Reserve is drawing close to its first rate rise since the crisis, a move many fear many reduce capital flows to emerging markets, potentially raising borrowing costs even if central banks do not raise policy rates in order to defend their currencies.
JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that the debt burdens of emerging market companies and households have jumped from 73 per cent of GDP in 2007 to 106 per cent at the end of 2014, virtually as high as in the developed world, where private sector debt levels have been falling (see the first chart).