The world economy appears to be at a fork in the road. On one path, 2016 appears likely to witness a deterioration from the mediocre to the miserable; on the other is a happy continuation of the normalisation from the 2008-09 financial crisis, with a more balanced and sustainable global economy. No one is sure which path the world will follow; nor whether policy is sufficiently strong to influence the outcome.
There is little doubt that the eyes of the world are sharply focused on the risks and challenges. Fears rose precipitously in the summer after China devalued its currency, highlighting concerns that the country’s economic prospects are deteriorating rapidly and recessions deepened in other former stars of the global economy such as Brazil and Russia. Global equity markets have just endured their worst quarter since 2011.
Alongside weak financial markets, capital has retreated towards havens in the developed world, commodity prices have plummeted and world trade growth remains stalled. China, not long ago the reliable engine of the world economy, is now seen as its greatest vulnerability, representing, as it does, 16 per cent of world output and almost 30 per cent of expected growth. “The key risk to global growth is a larger-than-expected slowdown in China,” according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.