How do you gauge a commodity exporter’s exposure to China? It sounds simple: the greater the share of commodities in a country’s exports, and the more those exports go to China, the greater the threat posed by China’s slowing economy and Beijing’s efforts to divert it from industrial investment to private consumption.
But some commodity countries, even those dependent on Chinese demand, are faring better than others. In its sovereign credit outlook for 2016, Moody’s Investors Service, one of the three big global credit rating agencies, set out to identify the emerging market governments whose creditworthiness is most in jeopardy.
According to Moody’s, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will include the most countries at risk. Mongolia and Angola are at the top of its list.