If the prospect of the Chinese renminbi’s entry into the basket of currencies composing the special drawing right was supposed to insulate it from the whims of speculation, no one appears to have told the foreign exchange traders.
Yesterday, after data showed Chinese exports in November sharply lower over the year on the back of weak external demand, the renminbi dropped to its lowest level in four years. Earlier this week, it emerged that Chinese official foreign exchange reserves registered their third-largest monthly decline on record in November.
Beijing is discovering that symbolic achievements such as admission to the SDR basket are less important than having a sustainable growth model. China is trying to effect a hugely difficult balancing act between short-term growth and long-term stability. In the face of capital outflows and downward pressure on the currency, it must steer an uneasy course between the two.