In December $108bn left China, with capital outflows marking an all-time monthly record. After adjusting for changing foreign exchange values, the outflow was an even more massive $126bn. China’s reserves have fallen about $700bn since the June 2014 peak of $3.99tn, the first annual decline.
Transitions are always dangerous times, and China’s shift to a more market-based forex regime seems particularly fraught. The tension has been seen in the increasingly wide gap — nearly a full percentage point before it converged abruptly yesterday — between the controlled onshore rate and the more market-determined offshore rate in centres such as Hong Kong (where renminbi deposits are down below 10 per cent of total deposits).
Concerns about the direction of China’s currency are understandable. The potential ripple effects of any plunge in the renminbi are significant, both for emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, and for developed markets.