Markets favour clarity and while clarity seems easy with hindsight, it’s rarely as stress-free when looking ahead.
It’s interesting how that can be forgotten — in particular at moments of transition for markets and the macro economy. We are at a transition point currently and transitions are bumpy. As an investor, it’s important to determine the implications of being right or wrong about a particular path. What should never be in doubt is the need for long-term money to stay invested.
We have seen several strong double-digit-return years since the financial crisis. Higher than normal returns become expected and they shouldn’t be. We’ve entered the later stages of the investment cycle and, in reality, it offers less clarity than investors have come to expect from an ageing bull market. The outlook is good, not great, and the risks have risen. Return expectations need to be managed lower.