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China’s lending bubble is being deflated

Investors’ attention remains focused on the minutiae of central bank policies in the developed world. But they might spare a thought for developments in China’s lending policies.

The implications of these dwarf anything being considered in Tokyo, Frankfurt, London or Washington, as the chart below highlights. It shows the changes since 2008 in official and shadow lending, which together constitute China’s total social financing (TSF).

• Phase 1, 2009. TSF lending doubled to $20tn, after President Hu and Premier Wen pressed the panic button in response to China’s loss of exports following the start of the financial crisis

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