Actions, we are told, speak louder than words. If so, then China looks in good shape. Yesterday, the country’s markets reopened after the week-long Chinese new year holiday. While China was closed, Japan’s equity markets slumped one-tenth in US dollar terms, and the Japanese yen surged.
Yet Shanghai’s return did not exacerbate the regional sell-off: the index opened down 3 per cent then rallied through the day. The renminbi, meanwhile, had its strongest bounce since 2005, up more than 1 per cent, especially curious after January trade data highlighted China’s poor economy. Exports fell more than one-tenth year-on-year, overshooting the anticipated 2 per cent drop. Imports, meanwhile, contracted one-fifth in US dollar terms — again, far worse than forecast.
These figures say more about the parlous state of the external situation than they do about China — exports to the EU, among others, were particularly poor. And while the import figure suggests a slowdown in internal demand, it was unduly influenced by collapsing commodity prices. Iron ore imports, for instance, grew 5 per cent in volume terms but dropped one-third in value terms, according to HSBC.