How quickly the narrative surrounding Chinese capital outflows has shifted. Just two months ago, all was panic, with investors betting on the rapid depletion of China’s foreign exchange reserves and the timing of when Beijing would capitulate and give up defending the renminbi.
Calm has since been restored. Senior Chinese officials are using every opportunity to talk up renminbi stability, while fresh uncertainty about the timing of the next Federal Reserve rate hike has taken the heat off the dollar, allowing for a steadier renminbi under the new currency basket orthodoxy pursued by the People’s Bank of China. The $28.6bn drop in foreign exchange reserves in February was the smallest since October.
It is a remarkable turnround for an exchange rate regime that only recently appeared to be careening towards Armageddon.