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China capital outflows persist despite FX reserves rebound

Capital flows from China persisted in April despite a reported rise in foreign exchange reserves, which mainly reflec­ted the impact of a weaker dollar on the central bank’s euro and yen holdings.

After falling for 18 of 20 months until February, slicing $791bn off the headline total, China’s official reserves rose by a combined $17bn in March and April, hitting $3.22tn last month.

But a look inside the data suggests significant latent outflow pressure remains. China has also benefited from global tailwinds in recent months that may not last. The strongest of these is the pause in interest rate rises by the US Federal Reserve, which caused a broad decline in the dollar versus global currencies.

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