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Renminbi has breathing space but China’s challenge remains

Since fears about capital outflows — which surfaced in August last year, and then again at the start of the year — raised the possibility of another Asian financial crisis, the renminbi has subsequently stabilised.

May outflows are likely to amount to around $26bn, a number that is “similar to March and April but much lower than in late 2015 and the beginning of the year,” say the economists at JPMorgan, who estimate that outflows were $257bn in December and January.

For some participants in the global system, such as central banks, the stabilisation of flows and the renminbi is all that matters. But for investors seeking to determine whether the worst is behind China, the reasons matter as much as the numbers.

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