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International investors will conclude the pound is cheap
英镑触底了吗?


普伦德:1931年9月英国退出金本位制的时候,英镑下跌了30%,那么,英国退欧也会导致英镑贬值如此大幅度吗?

When Britain left the gold standard in September 1931, sterling fell 30 per cent before finding a floor in December of the same year. That was the point at which foreign investors concluded the pound was cheap. To a degree their bet was self-fulfilling because the resulting inflow of capital contributed to a rapid expansion in broad money. And from 1932 to 1938 Britain saw one of its fastest growth spurts in the 20th century. How relevant might that be in relation to Britain’s exit from the EU?

当1931年9月英国退出金本位制的时候,英镑下跌了30%,随后在同年12月触底——外国投资者认定这个价位的英镑已经很便宜。他们的押注在某种程度上是自我应验的,因为由此导致的资本流入促使广义货币迅速扩张。1932年到1938年,是20世纪英国增速最快的时期之一。这一事件与英国退欧事件可能在多大程度上相似?

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