It has not been a great week for China bulls.
First, data out at the end of last week pointed to a slowing mainland economy as the pace of growth in industrial production and investment fell in the second quarter. Then, in its annual review of the Chinese economy, the International Monetary Fund warned darkly of the risk of defaults on $6tn of shadow banking products. That gave more ammunition to those who warn that no country has increased its debt to GDP at the rate that China has without having a crisis.
It is possible, though, that the gloom is overdone. “Our analysis of 765 banks in China indicates that recapitalisation and bailouts have started and made unexpected (and under-appreciated) progress,” notes Jason Bedford, an analyst at UBS in Hong Kong in a detailed analysis in mid-August. “Write-offs and bad asset disposal have risen threefold since 2013.”