Judging investors’ mood towards China can be a tricky exercise. If you assess the reaction to the landmark announcement of a direct trading link between exchanges in Shenzhen and Hong Kong that will for the first time allow international investors to bet on Chinese technology groups, it looks bearish. A week on from the news, Shenzhen and Shanghai markets are lower, while analysts’ views on Hong Kong Exchanges — which would be the biggest direct beneficiary of a planned link — are their gloomiest in more than three years.
Yet follow the money trail and the mood is more nuanced. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong have gained more than 10 per cent in the past two months, putting them among the top 10 performers in the world. It has also been one of their best showings since the rally and subsequent rout in mainland China last year. Hong Kong indices mostly reflect international money, and some of it seems ready to warm to China again.
There is some explanation for the contrasting pictures. The opportunity presented by the trading link with Shenzhen isn’t quite the same as betting on China via the state-backed companies that dominate the stocks available in Hong Kong. And, frankly, there should have been more excitement about the creation of the world’s second-largest pool of equity capital by linking China’s three trading hubs for the first time.