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Who’s next? The science of Chinese corporate defaults

A surge in Chinese corporate bond defaults this year has been concentrated in the state-owned sector, revealing the way in which squeezed local governments are turning a cold shoulder to corporate subsidiaries beset by unsustainable debt burdens.

A total of 41 default cases have hit China’s domestic debt markets in the year to mid-September, more than the previous two years combined, according to Wind Information, a Shanghai-based financial data company. Some 70 per cent of defaults by end-July were by state-owned enterprises, according to IHS, a consultancy.

Thus a persistent question over the next few years is likely to be: “Who’s next?”

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