With Southeast Asian leaders from the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand lining up to pay fealty to Beijing and distance themselves from Washington, their old ally, it is tempting to conclude that US influence in the region is in terminal decline. Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte’s declaration of economic and military “separation” from the US while on a visit to Beijing last month was the most dramatic example of apparent realignment.
Despite this, the strategic balance of power has barely shifted and is unlikely to do so for the foreseeable future.
For all his bluster, Mr Duterte is yet to cancel a single bilateral agreement with the US, and soon after leaving Beijing he toned down his “separation” pledge. Malaysia and Thailand have conducted military exercises with China in recent years but these symbolic manoeuvres are nothing compared with the deep and longstanding military ties both nations have with America. While these countries are clearly cosying up to China in ways that cost them virtually nothing, no one is cutting ties with America. Most have privately urged the US to increase rather than decrease its presence.