The runaway profits of the past will not be repeated. That is the response of investment bankers when asked about the unfamiliar glow that surrounded their industry in the final months of 2016.
The sector’s third-quarter results were impressive, with industry revenues up by 30 per cent in some business lines. Shares in investment banks rose more than 25 per cent after Donald Trump’s election as US president, as investors eyed a bright future of better growth, higher rates and less regulation.
To some industry observers it looked like the good times of 2006 had returned. “I don’t think so, I don’t even remember how that [2006] felt,” says Manuel Falco, Citi’s head of corporate and investment banking for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
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