Even a decade after the iPhone launched, anyone declaring Apple a “mature” enterprise risks looking foolish. Yes, its 2016 revenue is expected to be down on 2015, when revenues hit a mind-bending $235bn. Yet all the reasons to write off a resurgence of growth have been wheeled out before: the smartphone market is not expanding, especially at the top end where Apple has sequestered itself; competitors’ products are equally good or better, and cost less; Apple’s newest features are only tiny improvements. Perhaps these facts will finally bite in 2017. But rule out another reinvention at your own risk. That Apple car may drive off yet.
Still, it is undeniable that the company, at times, acts like a grown-up. It has been paying dividends for years, and repurchasing shares at a furious pace. The headlines of its last two earnings releases heralded — in the absence of higher phone and tablet sales — surging services revenues. This is a classic transition for ageing tech companies: from increasing the customer base to extracting more from each customer.
Last week Apple said that sales of apps on its iTunes store were up 40 per cent this year, to more than $20bn, with accelerating growth in China. This suggests that, even if Apple’s base of a billion or so devices never expands, the company could still grow — and perhaps even preserve its majestic 40 per cent operating margins. The key is keeping customers happy, or at least enough not to incur the nuisance of switching to another system of devices and applications.