As the global economy enters 2017, economic growth is running at stronger rates than at any time since 2010, according to Fulcrum’s nowcast models. The latest monthly estimates (attached here) show that growth has recovered markedly from the low points reached in March 2016, when fears of global recession were mounting.
Not only were these fears too pessimistic, they were entirely misplaced. Growth rates have recently been running above long-term trend rates, especially in the advanced economies, which have seen a synchronised surge in activity in the final months of 2016.
The financial markets have, of course, responded powerfully to the change in global growth, which was first picked up by the nowcast models in mid year. As the FT’s John Authers points out in his entertaining article on Hindsight Capital, the winning trades in the second half of the year were all linked to the theme of global recovery and reflation.