Separating noise from reality on the subcontinent can be especially difficult. Thus the latest rhetorical hostility between India and Pakistan could be just that — another spat between nuclear-armed neighbours who hesitate to match words with weapons because of the dangers of mutual annihilation.
Yet, the risk of a confrontation that could escalate into something worse has been significantly increased as a result of the arms race in the region. For good reason, global attention is focused on preventing North Korea from developing the ballistic missile capacity to strike the US west coast with nuclear weapons. That should not, however, deflect from the ever-present threat of India and Pakistan stumbling into a nuclear exchange.
As a reminder, officials in Islamabad warned on Thursday that they would not hesitate to deploy the full range of their weapons should India invade. That salvo was a response to confirmation from India’s new army chief of the existence of “cold-start” plans. This was an explicit acknowledgment from Delhi of long-rumoured efforts to develop a swift cross-border response that would pre-empt diplomatic intervention in the event, for example, of a major terrorist incident like that in Mumbai in 2011.