For an economy often said to be on the brink of collapse, China has been doing rather well. This year, the MSCI China index has delivered a return of 14 per cent, twice that of the MSCI All Countries World. Recent data look set to underpin a continuation of the run.
Last week, official data showed China’s manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace since 2012. That good news has fed through to 2016 earnings reports. CLSA, a brokerage, notes that four-fifths of the companies that have reported results have met or beaten forecasts. Surprisingly, listed property companies, long a source of concern for high debt levels, realised very strong cash flow, helping to boost dividends. Consensus earnings growth for the current year has been revised up by 2 percentage points.
The improvement is broad based. Dovetailing with data showing factories stopped laying off workers for the first time in five years, consumer trends have been strong. January and February online retail sales rose 31 per cent year on year, defying the norm of a seasonal slowdown. Macau, a weathervane of Chinese consumption, also had a strong start to the year. Even stodgy banks look set for a better 2017 after costs fell across the sector, notes Jefferies.