For the very definition of hope over experience, take a look at analysts’ efforts to predict profit growth in Asia.
Like a game of snakes with no ladders, each year for the past six has been one big slide as optimism met reality. Until 2017 that is: earnings forecasts for this year began in an upbeat mood and have only risen since, making upgrades a key reason for regional benchmarks climbing to their best levels in years.
Asia’s profits, excluding Japan, are forecast to grow 17.5 per cent this year, an improvement on the predictions of a rise of about 11 per cent when analysts first began forecasting last summer, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Reasons for the growth include the recovery in commodity prices, a pick-up in China’s economy, and the softer dollar as well as rising exports linked to the global recovery. One notable regional factor has been unexpectedly strong demand for Asia’s speciality tech components. Forecasts for South Korea’s earnings growth in 2017 have risen to 34 per cent from 8 per cent last summer, for example. And Taiwan’s tech-heavy Taiex last week closed at its strongest level since the dotcom boom.