What is it about the American economy that keeps hedge fund luminaries awake at night? A couple of weeks ago I put that question to Ken Griffin, head of the Citadel group.
His answer was illuminating: “Recession.” This is not because Mr Griffin is braced for a downturn right now; like most executives, he expects moderate growth this year, partly because he is excited about President Donald Trump’s reflation plans.
But Mr Griffin worries about maths — and history. Over the past century, the average length of an American recovery has been six years. However, the current expansion has lasted eight, so the charts imply that a recession is overdue.
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