There has been much talk in the wake of the G20 summit that concluded on Saturday about Donald Trump’s isolation and the loss of US leadership. So it’s worth asking what that might mean for the future of global business.
The answer lies predominantly in the world of trade and who ends up setting the rules of global commerce. And we got a flash of one potential future last week when the EU and Japan reached a “political agreement” on the contours of a trade deal.
With the Trump administration consumed by existing deals — whether exiting the Trans-Pacific Partnership or renegotiating others such as Nafta — rather than striking new ones, we are going to see many more examples like the EU-Japan deal. Put another way: get ready for many more trade pacts where the US, the dominant voice in trade for more than 70 years, is excluded.