What happens next in the global energy market depends to a disturbing degree on China. Disturbing not because the Chinese have done anything wrong – they haven’t. The country’s energy policy has been rational and largely predictable. But the situation is changing. The problem is that Beijing has become such a substantial force in the market that their actions or otherwise can send waves, often intentionally, through every part of the system. At the same time the predictability of the outcomes has eroded. The uncertainties over their future energy strategy, which I described in last week’s post, make them a very disruptive force in a market already struggling to keep up with multiple changes.
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