Every year for a decade or more, there have been dire warnings that this — this! — is the year in which the dams of international governance will break, and a flood of protectionism will inundate the world economy. The 9/11 attacks, the sustained episode of Chinese currency intervention, the collapse of the Doha round, the global financial crisis. Each was expected to pose a severe threat to trade. Each was much less damaging than feared.
The election of Donald Trump, the most protectionist president since the Great Depression, is a greater threat than all of those. This year has seen Mr Trump abrogate one massive trade deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and force the renegotiation of another, the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta). He has escalated threats of unilateral action to reduce trade deficits and continued the slow strangulation of the one functioning part of the World Trade Organization.
It would be a steel-nerved gambler who bet against Mr Trump’s economically nationalist rhetoric translating into reality. But the actual imposition of seriously damaging protectionist actions has, at least, been deferred until 2018. And the imminent threats fall short of all-out trade war.