The world economy is enjoying a synchronised recovery. This is good news for emerging and developing countries. It is also an opportunity. A slowdown in the potential rate of growth is affecting many of these countries. This is not only the result of demographic change, but also of a weakening in productivity growth. They need to tackle this urgently.
The World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects draws the picture. At market prices, global growth is thought to have been 3 per cent in 2017, with emerging and developing countries reaching 4.3 per cent. This year it is forecast to reach 3.1 per cent, with that of emerging and developing countries reaching 4.5 per cent.
As always, Asia is expected to grow fastest. Elsewhere, performance is less encouraging. Commodity-exporting emerging and developing economies are forecast to grow only 2.7 per cent this year, up from 1.8 per cent in 2017. The Latin American and Caribbean region is forecast to grow only 2 per cent this year, up from 0.9 per cent in 2017. Brazil is climbing only slowly out of a deep recession. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and north Africa is also forecast to remain slow, at 3.2 and 3 per cent, respectively.