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Try timing the market but accept your limitations
择时交易可以试 但须有自知之明


奥瑟兹:我认为择时交易是徒劳的。但正如一些读者所指出的,本专栏的许多内容隐含着向读者展示如何择时交易。这该如何理解?

Timing the market is a mug’s game. Trying to spot when a market has hit bottom or top and leap to another is prohibitively difficult, and it costs money. In the long run, all that happens to market-timers — unless they are very, very lucky — is that they spend much more in trading costs and end up worse off than if they had stayed put all along.

择时交易是徒劳的。试图发现一个市场何时触底、并转战另一个市场非常困难,而且要付出代价。从长远来看,除非择时交易者非常、非常幸运,否则他们的遭遇就是花费了更多的交易成本,而结果比坚守不动更糟。

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