The proposed abolition of a constitutional two-term limit on Xi Jinping’s presidency is politically momentous. The impact for foreign investors will depend on whether the move spurs capital flight among China’s wealthy. A weaker renminbi could make it tougher for Chinese companies to service offshore dollar debts, which rose massively last year.
The ascendancy of “Xi Jinping Thought” makes already well-advanced economic reforms unstoppable. These are aimed at raising efficiency and cutting the debt ratios of local government and state-owned enterprises. Consolidation is the chosen path to deleverage the latter.
That part of the programme is working. The average assets of centrally owned groups, such as chemicals giant ChemChina, have increased four-fifths to Rmb700bn ($110bn) since late 2014 as their number shrank, according to Société Générale. Cumulative profits have grown 5 per cent a year. Cost savings and greater pricing power should boost their margins. Adjusted debt for SOEs rated by Moody’s is forecast to decline slightly this year compared with 2016.