China is about to have its first new central bank governor in 15 years. Zhou Xiaochuan on Friday presided over what was presumed to be his last press conference as head of the People’s Bank of China. His successor, expected to be named on March 19, will be charged with controlling credit growth, attracting foreign investors into China’s financial markets, limiting contagion from the shadow banking sector and creating a more sustainable exchange rate regime.
The next governor would do well to take lessons from Mr Zhou, who played a weak hand in China’s bureaucracy very skilfully, affecting policy beyond the bounds of his official station. Unlike most central banks, the PBoC is not independent. The State Council signs off on routine adjustments to interest rates, banks’ reserve requirements and exchange rate management. Its members generally want to keep credit abundant and interest rates low, and have no interest in empowering the PBoC.
Yet Mr Zhou managed to shape an aggressive financial reform agenda, including liberalisation of interest rates and the exchange rate. He used international expertise and engagement to frame choices for China’s leaders narrowly, portraying reforms as in line with those of other modern, developed financial systems. By introducing limited reforms that appeared innocuous, he ended up creating outsized effects that broke down state constraints on China’s financial system.