观点投资

Stocks bear an unduly heavy burden of expectation
谨慎看待企业上调盈利预测对股价影响


奥瑟兹:本财报季,美国企业纷纷在公布财报前上调盈利预测,主要原因是美国减税计划,但长期而言利润率总会回归均值。

After years of covering quarterly earnings seasons, I am heartily sick of them. The expectations game, as companies talk down their prospects as the earnings announcement approaches, only to spring a “surprise” by beating the lower bar they set for themselves, is an annoying, phoney ritual. Companies frequently sucker those of us in the press into giving them good coverage and sucker investors into buying their shares.

在报道过多年的季度财报季后,我真心厌倦这些东西。随着财报公布时间的临近,企业会下调前景展望,好在之后超出他们为自己设定的较低目标来制造“意外”——这种预期游戏成了一种让人讨厌的虚假套路。企业会频繁哄骗我们这些媒体人为他们说好话,再哄骗投资者买入他们的股票。

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