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Investors cannot ignore the message of the US bond market

If you find the US government bond market intimidating, you are not alone. James Carville, the svengali figure behind the election of President Bill Clinton in 1992, famously said that if there were reincarnation, “I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”

Bond markets set the price of money for lenders and borrowers throughout the world economy, and do so for years into the future. They permit governments to borrow and pension funds to finance their guarantees to workers. So they are powerful.

They are also intimidatory, for many, because they are complicated and counterintuitive. Yields (the percentage return on a bond) rise as a bond’s price falls, and so on.

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