Pundits, stockbrokers and financial journalists like milestones. They offer a topic of debate, and usually focus minds on the markets. Yet the threshold that was broken on Tuesday — a 3 per cent yield on the 10-year US Treasury, a level last hit four years ago — is not important in itself.
What is important is the confluence of trends of which that milestone is a part. Yields on both short- and long-term US bonds have been rising by fits and starts since the end of 2016. A striking feature of the ascent has been that short yields have risen faster than long ones, suggesting
that the long-term outlook for growth and inflation remains subdued. The step-up in the 10-year yield in recent weeks suggests that this may be changing. Both nominal and real (adjusted for inflation expectations) yields are up.