A generation of political consultants was raised on the irritating slogan “it’s the economy, stupid”. But immigration now rivals economics as the driving force in western politics.
In economic terms, it makes sense for rich, ageing countries like the UK and the US to draw in new workers and citizens from poorer, younger neighbouring countries. But the election of Donald Trump and the vote for Brexit were both fuelled by fears of uncontrolled migration, with Mr Trump promising to “ build the wall ” along the Mexican border, and the Brexiters vowing to “take back control ” of borders from the EU.
This is clearly not just an Anglo-American phenomenon. In Germany, the decline in Angela Merkel’s political fortunes was closely tied to the chancellor’s decision to admit more than 1m refugees and migrants into Germany in 2015. In Hungary, Viktor Orban, the face of central European populism, has just won re-election after a campaign based on whipping up fears about immigration. Austria’s anti-migrant Freedom Party is now in government and Italy’s anti-migrant League is well placed to follow suit. In France, the National Front made it to the final round of the presidential election. And in Sweden, the far-right Sweden Democrats are polling at around 20 per cent, ahead of elections in September.