Time and again, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has proved willing to back down in diplomatic disputes when the circumstances required it. As his row with Donald Trump ramped up in recent weeks, wreaking havoc on the Turkish lira, many analysts were convinced that economic necessity would once again force the Turkish president’s pragmatic streak to shine through. But Mr Erdogan’s continued defiance has triggered growing anxiety that this time could be different.
Even after a painful week that saw the currency lose a fifth of its value against the dollar, piling pressure on Turkish companies and banks, Mr Erdogan remained unapologetic. Citing Turkey’s national poet, Nazim Hikmet, he told a meeting of ruling party officials in Trabzon on Sunday that “this country is ours” and vowed that the nation would not “bow down” before any foreign adversary.
Some observers maintain that, as Turkey’s has to attract more than $200bn a year in foreign financing to keep its economy afloat, Mr Erdogan will have no choice but to give in eventually, ceding to Mr Trump’s demand to release a jailed American pastor and announcing a package of measures aimed at reassuring investors. But the Turkish president could try to turn to Russia, Qatar or China for support, further loosening the already weakened ties between a strategically vital Nato member and the west.