As tension over trade ratchets up around the world, it is common to try to remind US policymakers that trade is not a “zero-sum” game. On the contrary, economic thinkers from Adam Smith all the way to Paul Krugman have shown that, by allowing countries to focus on that which they do best, trade can benefit everyone.
The logic behind this economic theory is overpowering and it has been born out by experience. Even so, it is politically irrelevant. It cannot counter the deep-seated facet of human nature that we are far more conscious of what we lose than of what we win, and that we are deeply averse to losses.
An increase in trade will create losers as well as winners. But it is a virtual certainty that the losers will be more visible. Just look at the US and Mexico: many Americans are convinced that the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement inflicted grievous losses on them. The driving sense of grievance caused by the decline of US manufacturing in the hollowed-out rust belt of the upper Midwest arguably made Donald Trump president.