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Whether oil prices rise or fall, there will always be a loser
油价是涨是跌都有输家


汤普森:特朗普可能如愿看到油价走低,不是因为他可以通过Twitter要求欧佩克生产更多石油,而是高油价自会削减需求。

For the past decade, oil prices have caused trouble whether they have been rising or falling. There is no level that does not pose a problem for either consumers or some producers. Venezuela, for example, has been a spectacular casualty of the low prices of 2015 and early 2016. The beginnings of the 2007-9 recessions in many countries were accompanied by extremely high prices that approached $150 a barrel in June 2008. In political terms, American elections are not readily won with West Texas Intermediate, the US standard, at $75 and rising, and oil-dependent Saudi Arabia’s budget becomes severely strained when Brent falls below $70.

过去十年,无论油价是涨是跌,都会造成麻烦。无论油价处于何种水平,要么令消费者心烦,要么让部分产油国头疼。例如,委内瑞拉就是2015年至2016年初油价下跌的严重受害者。很多国家在2007-09年经历的衰退在刚开始时伴随着油价高企——到2008年6月接近150美元/桶。在政治方面,当美国基准油价西德克萨斯中质油(West Texas Intermediate)处于75美元/桶并持续上涨时,想在美国大选中获胜没那么容易;而当布伦特(Brent)油价跌至70美元/桶以下时,依赖石油的沙特阿拉伯的预算会变得非常紧张。

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