Nobody knows how Brexit will unfold between now and next March. It’s feasible that the UK and the EU fail to strike a deal, that Theresa May falls, that Jeremy Corbyn is elected prime minister, that Brexit is delayed, or that a second referendum is held. As the Adidas slogan says: “Impossible is nothing.” Only when you look further into the future do things become clearer. I’ve been interviewing many Brexit participants in Britain and on the continent, and have concluded that the two scenarios now being endlessly debated — Britain living under no-deal, or a second referendum killing Brexit — are almost inconceivable. Even if there’s briefly a no-deal, or a second vote is held, neither will stick. Long-term, the most likely outcome is Brino (Brexit in name only) or a very soft Brexit.
没有人知道从现在到明年3年英国退欧的事情将会如何发展。英国和欧盟可能无法达成协议，特里萨•梅(Theresa May)也许会下台，杰里米•科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)或许会当选英国首相，英国可能会推迟退欧，或许还会举行第二次公投。正如阿迪达斯(Adidas)广告语所说的那样：“没有不可能(Impossible is nothing)。”只有当你展望更加遥远的未来时，事情才会变得比较清晰。我最近在采访英国及欧洲大陆的很多退欧参与者，并得出结论，目前各方没完没了辩论的两种情景——英国在无协议情况下退欧，或举行第二次公投取消退欧——几乎都不可想象。即便在短时间内无协议退欧，或者举行第二次公投，也都不会持久。长远来看，最有可能的结局是名义退欧(Brino)，也就是很软的退欧。