Bull markets, it is said, climb a wall of worry. When the last worrier turns into a fully invested optimist, the market has nowhere to go but down. That might be what has just happened: so much optimism was already in the prices of financial assets — in the US, above all — that once worry returned they had nowhere to go but down. How far might unfolding events exacerbate the worries? A long way, is the answer.
据说,牛市爬的是一堵忧虑之墙。当最后一位担忧者变成一个满仓的乐观者时,这个牛市就再也无法向上爬,而只能下去。这或许就是刚刚发生的事情:金融资产价格已经计入如此多的乐观情绪——尤其是在美国——以至于一旦忧虑重现,价格就只能下跌。未来的事态发展可能在多大程度上加剧这种忧虑?答案是很大。
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